Nearing new all time lows. Will we survive?

@bmiddaugh I'll take a stab at this.

The one thing I heard initially about FSR was that contract manufacturing is unheard of. The progress FSR is making is slow but steady. There is a little more, actually a lot more, they have to do specifically with regards to operations around the world. There are issues and there will be delays. Will there be more problems, yes!

I'll try and list what Fisker has acheived so far and is public knowledge [Loads of amateur assumptions]:

1. Great looking Ocean model car on the roads. More good looking models are intended for production in different segments.
2. Good EPA range.
3. They have presence in multiple regions around the world.
4. They hired and are hiring more everyday.
5. They have backing of "mystery" investors and cash runway through this tough economy. 
6. Production rates were slow at the start, but claimed 5,000 produced [Sept 30; VIN 6XXX]. On Oct 23 [~3 weeks], my VIN 85xx is being produced, so ~2500 and assume 4,000 in Oct 2023. Hopefully, they can produce another 11,000 in Nov-Dec 2023 to reach 20,000 to be on target.
7. They are genereating revenue.... $350 million from FOOs. I assume ~$350 million for VINs upto XX16000 by Dec 2024.
8. They had 60K reservations..... say is down to 40,000 for FOE/FOU/FOS. So they'll have 20,000 cars to produce into 2024. There are possibly more reservations than 40K.

I think these are reasonable points. Now lets say the company absolutely and completely fails along the way.

Considering points 1-8, would there be a reasonable interest from established manufactures (GM, Ford, Chrysler or another) to acquire Fisker. Let's say at its current valuation of $2 billion?! I'm leaning.... Yes! I'm biased towards Fisker and want them to succeed, so take the contents of this post as you see fit.

I'd like to hear thoughts from others in the community.

They will need to reduce guidance, again to probably 12-15k, likely only to deliver about 7500 total this year. The demand will be the issue, if they can maintain demand and figure out logistics and customer service, they should be fine. I don’t believe he will sell out if there is a somewhat promising outlook and not sure if anyone would buy him out if there wasn’t a promising outlook, they are in a tough spot.

@oceanones I don't think they'll get sold either and don't want them to. I'm saying if things go sideways from here, the company is still worth more than its current valuation. As for production guidance, they should keep the lower number from the Q2 (20,000 - 23,000).

@bmiddaugh I personally do not see how Fisker makes it out of the tailspin. I sold my stock months ago (shared in another post) at a 40% loss.

I know I will get flamed for this but here is my take on Fisker as an investment. 

• It has demonstrated that the asset light model gets them nothing but high costs. The hope/promise of speed and certainty on production ramp is dead. On November 18 we will be a full year since Fisker announced they had "Started Production" (see that here) and it is nowhere close to the ramp it promised on that day (42,000 units by end of this year)
  • Fisker has blamed anonymous supplier failures but this is the Fisker that had previously promised they had a specialized Tiger Team managing the supply chain
  • Regardless of the reason, Fisker has demonstrated that the asset light model does not improve production ramp
• It has demonstrated that the Asset Light / Experienced manufacturer model does not improve initial quality. For reference, the very worst Initial Quality performance (2022 JD Power) is an average 3.28 issues per vehicle for Polestar. Among more established brands the very worst is Chrysler at 2.65. (For all the whining here, Tesla at 2.26 is better than VW or Audi or Volvo, a bit worse than Porsche at 2; industry average 1.8). 
• It is terrible at software. The entire business model hinged on Fisker being great at two things: software and design. It had to be good at supplier management and customer service. You can argue that it is good at design (I would not, since the mechanical design of the Ocean is not showing much innovation) but the software is a million miles from industry leading. Without that, is has nothing to lean on beyond design.
• It has proven awful at managing customer delivery experience. A company that had been built to deliver 42,000 vehicles this year is incapable of decent delivery process for less than 5,000.
• As a result of the above... it has a lot of unhappy customers. Social media is filled with real customers who (like me) are literally paying Fisker $5,000 to keep their car rather than take it.
• To say the obvious, the management team is inexperienced and not transparent. More worrying, it is not attracting top talent and had terrible employee reviews on places like Glass Door. 

If someone wants to drop a few $ on a speculative EV bet, I would personally happily swap $4.85 Fisker shares at a loss for $16 Rivian shares today or even $203 Tesla shares. But that is just me. YMMV. I have already cut my losses. 

(FWIW when I sold FSR I used the minus 40% proceeds to buy Rivian and made back all my Fisker losses in less than two weeks.)

@bayoubob so you see fisker dead in my time frame?

Crazy that you sold for 40% loss AND bailed on the 5g deposit for it.

Props for having WAY more money than me! LOL

@bayoubob 

It has demonstrated that the asset light model gets them nothing but high costs

I'm curious where you saw that the asset light model is costing them more than building their own factory out of the gate.?

Looks like 2 for seems like we're getting there and 1 for chickened out.

I'm still gonna hold.

Nerves are part of it and sometimes ya gotta nut up and hold on when stuff gets crazy.

I keep looking at BIG money that has put themselves on the line investing in Fisker and keep thinking... Well, their strategy is always buy-hold.

I will continue to nut up, as they say, but if someone could dab my forehead that'd be cool.

Posted by: @bmiddaugh

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@bayoubob so you see fisker dead in my time frame?

Crazy that you sold for 40% loss AND bailed on the 5g deposit for it.

Props for having WAY more money than me! LOL

Sunk cost. The money is already gone. Each day you are essentially deciding to reinvest in the stock at that day's price instead of the using the money to invest in something else. But 100% agree that you cannot buy-and-sell on emotion. Stick to your long-term convictions. If you believe the Company's business model, management, and capabilities will create significant value above the current market cap, then you should stick with it, absolutely. You do not even need to believe it will be a good long-term play, only that it has solid upside from here. 

Also, I have not yet completely written off the $5k. Still talking to some folks who have an interest in my ONE. I expect next week will be the final decision date, but who knows? Fisker does not seem to be particularly interested in asking me for money lol. The delivery is scheduled for Nov 1 in the afternoon. I assume they will asked to be paid sometime before then. 

@fisker-brat if Fisker was to be purchased, i pray to dog that it isnt a US manufacturer.

i would say BMW or something more exotic looking for more EV presence, Alpha Romeo or similar.

Please, don’t let a US company put their greasy fingers on it, i shook them off a almost a decade ago and dont want to return😁

Posted by: @seaphil

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@fisker-brat if Fisker was to be purchased, i pray to dog that it isnt a US manufacturer.

i would say BMW or something more exotic looking for more EV presence, Alpha Romeo or similar.

 

Please, don’t let a US company put their greasy fingers on it, i shook them off a almost a decade ago and dont want to return😁

You do know that Alfa [Alpha] Romeo is the same company as Dodge/Jeep/Ram/Chrysler?

@ttrinchi you just ruined my day. Glad i didnt get one!

and i cant believe i spelled it Alpha😂

Posted by: @bayoubob

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Posted by: @bmiddaugh

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@bayoubob so you see fisker dead in my time frame?

Crazy that you sold for 40% loss AND bailed on the 5g deposit for it.

Props for having WAY more money than me! LOL

Sunk cost. The money is already gone. Each day you are essentially deciding to reinvest in the stock at that day's price instead of the using the money to invest in something else. But 100% agree that you cannot buy-and-sell on emotion. Stick to your long-term convictions. If you believe the Company's business model, management, and capabilities will create significant value above the current market cap, then you should stick with it, absolutely. You do not even need to believe it will be a good long-term play, only that it has solid upside from here. 

Also, I have not yet completely written off the $5k. Still talking to some folks who have an interest in my ONE. I expect next week will be the final decision date, but who knows? Fisker does not seem to be particularly interested in asking me for money lol. The delivery is scheduled for Nov 1 in the afternoon. I assume they will asked to be paid sometime before then. 

 

 

Huh?

So the car is coming, but you haven't finalized payment?

Seriously man, like a LOT of what you post...

it straight up, does not pass the sniff test for truth.

But whatever, have fun.

Props on apparently timing that rivian trade perfectly to recoup a 40% loss.

2 weeks after receiving  car. Sooo many issues. Can't start the car. Key fob doesnt work. Getting stuck at remote location and can't unlock car to drive home! Soooo pissed!

Posted by: @bmiddaugh

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Posted by: @bayoubob

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Posted by: @bmiddaugh

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@bayoubob so you see fisker dead in my time frame?

Crazy that you sold for 40% loss AND bailed on the 5g deposit for it.

Props for having WAY more money than me! LOL

Sunk cost. The money is already gone. Each day you are essentially deciding to reinvest in the stock at that day's price instead of the using the money to invest in something else. But 100% agree that you cannot buy-and-sell on emotion. Stick to your long-term convictions. If you believe the Company's business model, management, and capabilities will create significant value above the current market cap, then you should stick with it, absolutely. You do not even need to believe it will be a good long-term play, only that it has solid upside from here. 

Also, I have not yet completely written off the $5k. Still talking to some folks who have an interest in my ONE. I expect next week will be the final decision date, but who knows? Fisker does not seem to be particularly interested in asking me for money lol. The delivery is scheduled for Nov 1 in the afternoon. I assume they will asked to be paid sometime before then. 

 

 

Huh?

So the car is coming, but you haven't finalized payment?

Seriously man, like a LOT of what you post...

it straight up, does not pass the sniff test for truth.

But whatever, have fun.

Props on apparently timing that rivian trade perfectly to recoup a 40% loss.

I take umbridge on the accusation that I am not telling the truth. Here is a snapshot of my Fisker account showing the delivery date of Nov 1, the VIN, the Delivery Address, and the fact that I have not yet provided final payment (or insurance for that matter). 

Good enough?