I estimate that Fisker will only produce 10,000 OCEANs this year

Posted by: @peter-harpin

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Given all the turmoil in Europe caused by the russian WAR in Ukraine, I estimate that Fisker will only produce 10,000 OCEANs this year

I hope Fisker produces more than 10k units. There will be a lot of disappointed customers, not to mention shareholders. Of course, no one knows how things will pan out. However, Fisker management has the best visibility of their business. They sounded pretty confident on the recent earnings call. Time will tell though.

@seancallahan Why reiterating an impossible car # guidance?

No, it's not disappointed customers or small holders, it will be big banks,

capital funds that will sell over disappointed analysts expectations.

That will hurt us all and make us loose $ Example: FSR dropping to $6 from +-10$? at the next earnings call in 3months)

Conservativelly speaking, if they're able to triple their current production,

lets be realistic, to an estimate of 60cars /day x 150 days = 9000 OCEANs 

it will be at maximum capacity. They should never have repeated a lie

(that LUDICROUS 42,000 number) in front of us and they will have to face to music at the next conference calls

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4583762-fisker-asset-light-model-alluring-but-misguided

Compounding the problem is that fact that:

Austria was ranked No. 1 for providing workers with 25 days of paid annual leave and 13 public holidays, bringing the total number of paid time off to 38. 

(Quote from These Are the Countries With the Most Paid Vacations Days in the World.)

As for cars/day, let's say that the mentioned 20/day number is for a single shift on one production line.   Let's say they can improve on that to 30/day/line and run 3 lines over 3 shifts per day.   Now you're punching out 270 cars per day and that gets you closer to the 42,400 production target, but only if the factory doesn't shut down for a full month at some point during the summer, as is typical in Europe.

But b/c of the likelihood that the factory will shut down for at least 2 weeks, and nothing ever goes perfectly, 30K cars is a more realistic expectation.   But who knows, as Fisker hasn't made any claims about Magna's commitments for number of lines, shifts or total working days.    Given that HF established a precedent of stating how many cars/day they've been able to complete, it would seem he needs to state a new improved number at the next earnings call!

You guys put a lot of thought into this .It could be accurate, but right now I am drinking red wine at 30,000’ so anything is plausible …😂

Whether anyone agrees with this or not, Fisker can make up their production in the back half of the year with 7,500 units/month (250/units day). Below is an article I put together back in October ahead of SOP. A lot has changed since then, but capacity at Magna remains the same.

https://fiskerati.com/fisker-ocean/how-fisker-will-ramp-production/

@seancallahan Using your article's assumptions and applying them to what we know today (SOP was meaningless, SORP is what matters), it looks like 22K units this year ONLY if the factory doesn't shut down for the month of August.

Now, I would think that they can probably ramp at a 100% improvement month over month until reaching 7500/day, and as a result perhaps 30K+ units becomes possible even when throwing away August.

Posted by: @carlh

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Using your article's assumptions and applying them to what we know today (SOP was meaningless, SORP is what matters), it looks like 30K units this year ONLY if the factory doesn't shut down for the month of August.

Now, I would think that they can probably ramp faster than a 50% improvement month over month until reaching 7500/day, so that 30K units becomes possible even when throwing away August.

Well, not exactly, we didn't have Fisker's production forecast until a month later at the Q3 2022 earnings call on November 2nd. At the time, Fisker said, "Fisker confirms 42,400 Ocean unit production plan based on a detailed four-stage supplier ramp up and vehicle assembly plan from November 17, 2022 to end of 2023. This plan was developed to help ensure that parts suppliers would follow our anticipated production ramp volumes. 2023 quarterly production plan is as follows: Q1 over 300, Q2 over 8,000, Q3 over 15,000, Q4 remainder to get to 42,400." That means the growth rate of the production ramp will be much much greater than 50% before it levels out. All of this assumes Fisker get the parts necessary required to scale at this rate.

Posted by: @seancallahan

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2023 quarterly production plan is as follows: Q1 over 300, Q2 over 8,000, Q3 over 15,000, Q4 remainder to get to 42,400."

I'm sticking with 30K units this year.   How about a contest to guess the actual 2023 number (before the end of March) and giving away a free premium sub to the closest winner?!!!

Posted by: @carlh

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How about a contest to guess the actual 2023 number (before the end of March) and giving away a free premium sub to the closest winner?!!!

Let's do this!! 

Posted by: @peter-harpin

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(that LUDICROUS 42,000 number) in front of us and they will have to face to music at the next conference calls

This is kind of the key statement. Fisker is never facing any music at conference calls. The finger is always pointing outward, when what investors and customers a signs of HF having changed this behaviour from the FA days. Kept making vague statements and avoiding important information to investors right up to the bankruptcy. A lot of people remember this or can read about it in older articles. 

This car is getting long in the (tech & spec) tooth before it is even on the roads, so I give them exactly one more month to complete homologation work before I cancel my One order and collect my $5250 to buy something else. 

I would sit on this reservation for years more if the communication contained honesty and responsibility and that the mansion grabbing attitudes of the Fiskers were not seeping through all the cracks. 

Posted by: @seancallahan

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Let's do this!! 

6500 cars.

Homologation issues forces some kind of tech back to the drawing board and retesting and revalidation. Magna can't have production lines standing idle and allocate some other production to the lines, with Oceans being done in between retooling phases. 

I'm going with 28,300  for YE 2023