I estimate that Fisker will only produce 10,000 OCEANs this year

Posted by: @peter-harpin

↑

Given all the turmoil in Europe caused by the russian WAR in Ukraine, I estimate that Fisker will only produce 10,000 OCEANs this year

I hope Fisker produces more than 10k units. There will be a lot of disappointed customers, not to mention shareholders. Of course, no one knows how things will pan out. However, Fisker management has the best visibility of their business. They sounded pretty confident on the recent earnings call. Time will tell though.

@seancallahan Why reiterating an impossible car # guidance?

No, it's not disappointed customers or small holders, it will be big banks,

capital funds that will sell over disappointed analysts expectations.

That will hurt us all and make us loose $ Example: FSR dropping to $6 from +-10$? at the next earnings call in 3months)

Conservativelly speaking, if they're able to triple their current production,

lets be realistic, to an estimate of 60cars /day x 150 days = 9000 OCEANs 

it will be at maximum capacity. They should never have repeated a lie

(that LUDICROUS 42,000 number) in front of us and they will have to face to music at the next conference calls

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4583762-fisker-asset-light-model-alluring-but-misguided

Compounding the problem is that fact that:

Austria was ranked No. 1 for providing workers with 25 days of paid annual leave and 13 public holidays, bringing the total number of paid time off to 38. 

(Quote from These Are the Countries With the Most Paid Vacations Days in the World.)

As for cars/day, let's say that the mentioned 20/day number is for a single shift on one production line.   Let's say they can improve on that to 30/day/line and run 3 lines over 3 shifts per day.   Now you're punching out 270 cars per day and that gets you closer to the 42,400 production target, but only if the factory doesn't shut down for a full month at some point during the summer, as is typical in Europe.

But b/c of the likelihood that the factory will shut down for at least 2 weeks, and nothing ever goes perfectly, 30K cars is a more realistic expectation.   But who knows, as Fisker hasn't made any claims about Magna's commitments for number of lines, shifts or total working days.    Given that HF established a precedent of stating how many cars/day they've been able to complete, it would seem he needs to state a new improved number at the next earnings call!

You guys put a lot of thought into this .It could be accurate, but right now I am drinking red wine at 30,000’ so anything is plausible …😂

Whether anyone agrees with this or not, Fisker can make up their production in the back half of the year with 7,500 units/month (250/units day). Below is an article I put together back in October ahead of SOP. A lot has changed since then, but capacity at Magna remains the same.

https://fiskerati.com/fisker-ocean/how-fisker-will-ramp-production/

@seancallahan Using your article's assumptions and applying them to what we know today (SOP was meaningless, SORP is what matters), it looks like 22K units this year ONLY if the factory doesn't shut down for the month of August.

Now, I would think that they can probably ramp at a 100% improvement month over month until reaching 7500/day, and as a result perhaps 30K+ units becomes possible even when throwing away August.

Posted by: @carlh

↑

Using your article's assumptions and applying them to what we know today (SOP was meaningless, SORP is what matters), it looks like 30K units this year ONLY if the factory doesn't shut down for the month of August.

Now, I would think that they can probably ramp faster than a 50% improvement month over month until reaching 7500/day, so that 30K units becomes possible even when throwing away August.

Well, not exactly, we didn't have Fisker's production forecast until a month later at the Q3 2022 earnings call on November 2nd. At the time, Fisker said, "Fisker confirms 42,400 Ocean unit production plan based on a detailed four-stage supplier ramp up and vehicle assembly plan from November 17, 2022 to end of 2023. This plan was developed to help ensure that parts suppliers would follow our anticipated production ramp volumes. 2023 quarterly production plan is as follows: Q1 over 300, Q2 over 8,000, Q3 over 15,000, Q4 remainder to get to 42,400." That means the growth rate of the production ramp will be much much greater than 50% before it levels out. All of this assumes Fisker get the parts necessary required to scale at this rate.

Posted by: @seancallahan

↑

2023 quarterly production plan is as follows: Q1 over 300, Q2 over 8,000, Q3 over 15,000, Q4 remainder to get to 42,400."

I'm sticking with 30K units this year.   How about a contest to guess the actual 2023 number (before the end of March) and giving away a free premium sub to the closest winner?!!!

Posted by: @carlh

↑

How about a contest to guess the actual 2023 number (before the end of March) and giving away a free premium sub to the closest winner?!!!

Let's do this!! 

I'm going with 28,300  for YE 2023

Let's say 1,000 per month  x 7 = 7,000 OCEANs this year? 

<< 1,400 Lyriqs in April after delivering less than that in the first quarter.  [...] the automaker hopes to build close to 40,000 Lyriqs this year to meet demand.  >> www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-03/cadillac-lyriq-2023-production-delays-sour-potential-buyers

@peter-harpin LOL that is a funny random guesstimate based on nothing in particular with respect the Ocean. 

Yes, the Bloomberg article is super embarrassing for General Motors, but not sure what it has to do with Fisker. GM's problem is that they and LG cannot get the Ultium plant up and running. Lyriqs being cancelled. GM forced to give a $5,000 check to hold onto early orders who were promised their vehicles last year but GM has only been able to deliver 122 in total. All very embarrassing and the entire Ultium platform will only be able to deliver 70k vehicles this year across Lyriq, Silverado, Hummer, Equinox, and BrightDrop vans in 2023. And that assumes no further stumbles at the ultium ramp-up. So when Bloomberg quotes GM saying "the automaker hopes to build close to 40,000" Lyriqs, we can take that with a grain of salt. It would only leave 30k vehicles worth of batteries for all the rest. You can be pretty confident that Silverado takes priority over Lyriq all other things being equal. 

@bayoubob F RANDOM yourself!  Spring Hill delivered 1,400 LYRIQs last month!!

prove me wrong and prove me now that you at MAGNA can beat 1,000 OCEANs a month or +-10,000 cars this year!!

@peter-harpin Lol. You provided zero information or rhyme or reason for the 1,000 number. It was random. Was there any data underpinning it whatsoever? It sure looks like nothing more than a WAG when you say "Let's say 1,000 per month  x 7 = 7,000 OCEANs this year?" Okay. let's say that. Now let's not. 

Yes I am aware that GM delivered fewer than 968 Lyriqs in the first three months of the year but that they produced (not delivered) 1,400 in April. The Bloomberg article you posted was pretty brutal on them. I really still do not know what GM's failure to deliver on the Lyriq, Hummer, and its massive delays in Ultium have to do with Fisker. Yes, yes I am completely aware that in February 2022 GM promised to deliver 400,000 EVs in 2023 and now Bloomberg is reporting it only has batteries for 70k back-end loaded to 3Q / 4Q and that everything keeps getting delayed. But GM getting delayed does not mean Fisker getting further delayed. One really has nothing to do with the other.