Fisker vs Rivian Profitability

They projected 40k plus deliveries in 2023. I’d be impressed if they hit 20k. They will not be profitable in 2023.

Casted my vote!

Henrik went on to say in the same Q4 earnings call...

And there is no other start-up that I'm aware of that makes EVs that is profitable from the get-go, from the first year. 

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@ttrinchi yea, they don’t have much in common, Rivian actually makes and sells vehicles, Fisker, not a single sold vehicle on the road. The 43k vehicles built this year is never happening, and, once again, Henrik Fooledya is gonna look bad for saying it several times, but whatever, he is starting to get really good at making himself look bad. At this point, it wouldn’t surprise me if there was not a single vehicle delivered this year, doubt that is true, but no one knows the truth. Fisker isn’t bleeding cash, but they are spending it with 0 profit. They won’t make any profit this year and if they don’t start pumping Oceans out soon, no profit in 24.

I think we are all growing a bit weary of this trolling stuff, so rather than speculating, let's make it interesting. You say: "it wouldn’t surprise me if there was not a single vehicle delivered this year" and that "the 43k vehicles built this year is never happening." Let's split the difference: I will give you 20 cents for every vehicle they fall short of 21,500 vehicles delivered this year, you give me 10 cents for every vehicle they deliver above 21,500. If it is really Henrik Fooledya and they do not deliver any vehicles, you stand to make $4,300. And if you are wrong and they deliver the full number then you owe me $2,150. Seems like a pretty good deal for you given how confident you are in tossing around accusations and pessimism. 

Sean can hold the money. He's a trustworthy guy. 

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@bayoubob I am kind of tempted by the bet. Is it an open bet ;-)?

As it stands now, with production probably not starting until month 5 of 12 and it does not seem like neither supply, storage, manufacturing, shipping or deliveries have been stress tested. Of course they are going to get into situations what will halt production at any hint of ramp up. 

I kind of think your number, 21500 is a very reasonable, rational target though. My guess is about half of that again, but we are working with limited information and probably a difference of opinion on Fisker Inc capabilities. So I guess that they will get into sourcing, recall or allocations issues that will affect production severely. 

I would really like to give @fiskeridontevenknower a chance to step up since he/she is the one with the very bold comments. But if he/she is unwilling to put up then sure, I would take it from somewhere else. 

@seancallahan BTW Sean, I think they said the vehicle would be profitable, not the company. IOW, the Ocean will achieve unit profitability in the first year of production, but the company SG&A has to still be amortized over a relevant number of units. Not sure that is in the cards this year and do not think that is what they guided.

@bayoubob I've either heard or read that somewhere. What I quoted was direct from the earnings call transcript.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/q4-2022-fisker-inc-earnings-061006750.html

Posted by: @bayoubob

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@seancallahan BTW Sean, I think they said the vehicle would be profitable, not the company. IOW, the Ocean will achieve unit profitability in the first year of production, but the company SG&A has to still be amortized over a relevant number of units. Not sure that is in the cards this year and do not think that is what they guided.

On the first post, that is ther quote HF provided.  HF state "we are going to be profitable this year."  He also later stated "And there is no other start-up that I'm aware of that makes EVs that is profitable from the get-go, from the first year."  The way I read it is that the company would be profitable, not just the vehicle; although I could see being just the vehicle.  Of note, Tesla was profitable from the get-go on vehicle production (automobile sales less COGS) but not net income.

HF did say Geeta would go into more detail on profitability but could not find any reference in the call transcript about Geeta discussing.