Fisker Earnings Preview: Q3 2023

@SeanCallahan I'd like to add some datapoints I've been tracking.  First of all, here is the earnings estimates currently showing on MSN:

Similar to the numbers you reported, higher consensus revenue estimate.  It will be a stretch to hit $135.74M gross, I'd place it on the high side of possible.  In part it depends on one-off factors like whether this quarter includes "recognition" of the $5,000 non-refundable deposits on the ONEs or if those were previously reported.

As I posted in my Q3 deliveries thread, there were 997 Fisker registrations in the US.  I think this is probably a conservative number, as some who are still awaiting delivery have already wired the rest of their funds, but again it all comes down to when Fisker recognizes the revenue.

Today I went searching for EU Q3 registration data and found this site: Electric Vehicle registrations in Europe: 13 countries, majority of BEV market (eu-evs.com).  No numbers yet for Germany, but here are the totals through end of Q3 for some other key countries:

Denmark: 210

Austria: 113

Norway: 199

In total, this yields 1,519 confirmed vehicles registered in just these 4 key markets during the third quarter.

Several of the countries report daily and have already started putting out numbers in Q4, but I wouldn't expect those to show up in earnings.  A separate site listed 105 in Germany for October, but it wasn't clear if that was really just the month of October or full year through October. 

Germany 

105 cars

You can find here

German registrations

Posted by: @powerbutton

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Germany 

105 cars

You can find here

German registrations

That matches up with the source I saw, but it claims they were all in October when we know for a fact a select number of customers were receiving Oceans in Germany earlier than that, and it frankly sounds low when much smaller countries like Denmark and Austria are putting up higher numbers (although Henrik and Magna's respective homelands were no doubt getting top priority.)

If you look at the very bottom there is a line labeled "Sonstige" ("Other"), I suspect that German Fiskers prior to October were getting lumped in that category before getting broken out as their own make with the October numbers, hence why the October Fisker registrations match the full year.  In any event, I would not expect those 105 to count towards the Q3 earnings, but I do suspect there are 200-300 Oceans buried in Other that will.

@carcharodon it's not bad for a start up.  BYD has also only ~220. A lot of people from Austria Swizelad pic up the car in germany.  But they cars not registratet in germany. I miss September August. I must compare it. From the FOO edition the most cars go to Amerika!!!

@bmiddaugh It didn't take long for 42k cars for 2023 to comwdown to 10-12k, with likely less than 5k delivered.

Similarly, it wpuldn't take 8 to 10%  Margin to disappear if the costs can't be controlled. They took $0.5B Operating loss TTM, can you comeup with what math would make it positive ?

15K cars with 10K gross profit each brings it to $150M. I doubt it will be enough to cover the costs. They will continue to be burning cash next year looks like.

I don't think that 8-10% margin accounts for latest price cuts and post delivery costs.

I trimmed my position when I realized all these issues wete happening, Unfortunately didn't trim enough.. It is down 40% in a month for a reason and short sellers are not it.

Posted by: @bmiddaugh

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This aligns with Fisker’s annual forecast of an 8-12% gross margin for 2023.

This.

Why does no one talk about THIS.

Rivian, Polestar, all those guys don't have those margins, they have - margins.

This is something I do not understand.

The main thing here is that Fisker has made it perfectly clear to everyone, except some Stockholm Syndrome victims, that forecasts from Fisker has no value. 

Well, there is some value in their forecast, as you will know for a fact that the forecasted date/time/ fraction/feature will never happen. 

So consensus then with all us invested in Fisker, bankruptcy by this time next year.

Sound right?

I mean that seems to be what everyone is moving towards.

Or am I reading the room wrong?

@dsf This aligns with Fisker’s annual forecast of an 8-12% gross margin for 2023.

This was their gross margin at last earnings call....not a forecast.

Quote:

"

I wanna repeat here, that no other major US EV mfg besides Tesla has a POSITIVE gross margin.

None.

And again I ask.

Bankruptcy by 2024?

Posted by: @bmiddaugh

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So consensus then with all us invested in Fisker, bankruptcy by this time next year.

Sound right?

I mean that seems to be what everyone is moving towards.

Or am I reading the room wrong?

It won't be a clear cut bankruptcy, but some kind of restructuring. A lot of stuff is going to be sold; manufacturing allocations, battery contracts, perhaps some drivetrain contracts. But this is < $200M worth, so that will be the price of the stock quite soon; about $0.5. That is the actual value of Fisker Inc if you discard any hail marys. 

Any chance of survival is to have very clear and present plans to to get out of the China battery, Euro manufacturing setup. Just too much US "embargos" going on for that setup to be profitable in foreseeable horizon.  In Europe the competition is just too fierce to sell any substantial amounts of Oceans. By the Pear is done, we will have been flooded with cheap EV models with no room for a Fisker. 

@dsf

Posted by: @dsf

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It won't be a clear cut bankruptcy, but some kind of restructuring. A lot of stuff is going to be sold; manufacturing allocations, battery contracts, perhaps some drivetrain contracts. But this is < $200M worth, so that will be the price of the stock quite soon; about $0.5. That is the actual value of Fisker Inc if you discard any hail marys. 

Any chance of survival is to have very clear and present plans to to get out of the China battery, Euro manufacturing setup. Just too much US "embargos" going on for that setup to be profitable in foreseeable horizon.  In Europe the competition is just too fierce to sell any substantial amounts of Oceans. By the Pear is done, we will have been flooded with cheap EV models with no room for a Fisker. 

Ok,

so then NYSE delisting (which is what a .50 cent price means), then death of fisker.

You see this because you have what insight into the internal financials of the company?

I'm still lost how a company that can immediately turn a profit on every car sold of at least 7.5% is immediately over the minute they start producing cars.

2+2 is equaling .5 in your analysis.

The EV manufacturers that you say will blow past them are losing money on every car sold while fisker makes money.

@bmiddaugh Gross profit != net profit. Company can still continie to burn cash while showing positive gross profit.

And Lucid/Rivian's gross profit is not same as Fiskers, not apples to apples comparision.

What does gross profit really mean in case of Fisker?

BK is not a given as there is still time/hope for things to turn around, but some are not in Fisker's control and even the ones that are, dont seem to being handled effectively at this point.

@vikas-d Fisker has pretty consistently had a cash burn of ~$70M per quarter for R&D and overhead management expenses.  At 8% gross margin, they would have to sell 15k Extremes per quarter at the new lower price ~$61k to break even on free cash flow.  I would expect another $25m per quarter in costs for mobile servicing and building out the experience center staffing going forward.  It's a stretch, but it's eminently doable over the next year.

As far as management, a lot of people think Henrik doesn't know how to run a company.  I think the reality is he's been burned before and so his inclination is to run things on a shoestring budget.  For the East Coast customer with a brick in the driveway waiting for a tech those look exactly the same.  To the stock analyst, that same cheapness equals a longer runway to establish viability.

Over the next year and half, I expect another ~$300-500M in one-time costs to stand up the PEAR production line, and I would expect Fisker to try to cover as much of that as possible through restricted stock warrants (read: dilution) like was done with Magna.

So now we have a mystery to unravel - how were 1,519 Oceans registered in Q3 if Fisker only delivered 1,097 to customers?  Do European countries have the manufacturer register the vehicle before they hand it over to the customer or something?  Are there 400 floor models/test drivers sitting in experience centers worldwide instead of being sold?  What gives?