Reservation Funny Math

Posted by: @ceisenhower

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Actually,  here is my question- recent (very cool) interview with HF he was still saying they have about 65,000 reservations as of May 2023.  I thought they had 60,000 back last October/November?  They didn't get any more?

Lots of cancellations offset new reservations. The fact that net reservations is barely growing is unsurprising IMO. Once the vehicle is released to the public and it is reviewed by independent journalists, it will either lead to a wave of new reservations or the other thing will happen. In the mean time, the leading competitor vehicle has become a lot less expensive, new reservations are ineligible for US tax credits, and financing costs have jumped. It is on every dimension a much tougher environment than it was last Spring when the Ocean was $7,500 cheaper and the competitor was $8,000 more expensive. I am surprised by how well the reservation numbers are holding, tbh. 

Posted by: @ceisenhower

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Actually,  here is my question- recent (very cool) interview with HF he was still saying they have about 65,000 reservations as of May 2023.  I thought they had 60,000 back last October/November?  They didn't get any more?

~65,000 net reservations and orders as of May 8th, which includes cancellations. 

@ceisenhower I read that 43% were one and extreme. If so 43% of 60k is 26k. Remove 5k ocean one. You are at 21k. By July if they deliver 5k ocean one and ramp up 6k per month from Aug as they said, the total wood be 35k in 2023 and you get get yours late Oct or early Nov. I am only a month ahead of you. If they deliver 5k of One and 10k of Extreme before I get mine in early to mid Oct, we may get stable software and more of the promised features.

@seancallahan - All down to lack of communication from the company, I guess. After the fanfare of getting one ONE being rolled out, nothing much to write home about thereafter. People want to see cars that were meant to be manufactures, rolled out in the hands of customers and car reviewers before they commit to buying one. Me included. 🙂

@harmony One of the things I am learning through all this is that obfuscation appears to be standard operating procedure for all vehicle manufacturers.  Try finding out when the 2024 Cadillac Lyriq is going to roll out the door.  How long have people been waiting for the Tesla Cybertruck? (one ugly vehicle IMHO).  On a side note, I thought that HF made an interesting point about going to a single casting like the Cybertruck is supposedly doing- what happens when you have an accident?  Is the car totalled?  Not sure if he was taking a shot at Tesla but it seems to be a legitimate point.

@ceisenhower It's not just vehicle manufacturers, it's pretty much all companies. Nobody is on forums demanding answers to the delay of a new cereal though.  There is constant delays in movie releases.  Apple has delayed products but they just act as it is marketing genius!

@ttrinchi thank you for this. I’ve never seen consumers of any product so demanding for information no other company tends to give. I feel like people on these message boards feel almost entitled to information Fisker doesn’t have to give.

@x_mangan It's understandable (not the entitled part though).  A car tends to be the second largest purchase a person makes in their lifetime and many will spend more on the Ocean (or any EV) than they have on any previous vehicle (you can search "Tesla Stretch") so it's natural to be more invested in the Ocean than some other product.  Unfortunately, delays are the norm for products requiring so many suppliers and vendors.  The Tesla forum was very similar while we were waiting for the Model 3; ID.4 forum wasn't as bad but VW sent out almost zero updates which may actually have helped.

@ttrinchi I hear you. If I didn’t have disposable income I wouldn’t have ordered the One, and if I didn’t have access to the One, I’d need to test drive an Ocean before placing an order. The One just seemed like too good a deal to pass up (and I still believe that).

Posted by: @ttrinchi

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@ceisenhower It's not just vehicle manufacturers, it's pretty much all companies. Nobody is on forums demanding answers to the delay of a new cereal though.  There is constant delays in movie releases.  Apple has delayed products but they just act as it is marketing genius!

Oh yeah! I remember that one time I plopped down non-refundable $5250 for that one cereal that was delayed! Thanks for the reminder. I guess dropping serious non-refundable cash on a product that fails to be delivered on time is totally normal and not out of the norm. This comparison is silly, and you know it. Nobody places massive non-refundable payments for any other product. Fisker is actually one of the only ones I am aware of that have this non-refundable nonsense, and deposits of this size. Be realistic.

@grimtango have you tried ordering a car with your own specs from any company in the last 3 years? Yes, delays are extremely common. Being realistic is expecting delays, and ordering a brand new car from a new company? Realistically, expect long delays.

Posted by: @grimtango

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Oh yeah! I remember that one time I plopped down non-refundable $5250 for that one cereal that was delayed! Thanks for the reminder. I guess dropping serious non-refundable cash on a product that fails to be delivered on time is totally normal and not out of the norm. This comparison is silly, and you know it. Nobody places massive non-refundable payments for any other product. Fisker is actually one of the only ones I am aware of that have this non-refundable nonsense, and deposits of this size. Be realistic.

Have you ever backed a project on Kickstarter? "When you back a project, you’re supporting a creator’s right to try to make something new—and agreeing to go along for the ride." That's kind of how I see it for early customers like myself who pre-ordered the Fisker Ocean One. As a result, I've chosen to go along for the ride!!

@seancallahan that reminds me I think I’m still due a giant beach towel from a Kickstarter I backed in 2019.

@ttrinchi - Apple and many other phone manufacturers get a new model out nearly every year, and we know when they are coming (near enough). No product delays like some new car models are prone to.

My one big gripe (among some others) – what was the hurry in handing out just the one ONE, and then a big pause? If there weren't going to be a few more at the same time or soon enough, it only raises doubts and questions. May as well have waited longer for the one ONE. Not very thoughtful from Fisker team!