Delivery Schedule

I think I overestimated my delivery date. I placed my reservation June 23, 2022, which makes my reservation # approximately 60,000. If they are only building 300 cars in Q1 and then ramping up to 42,000 cars a year, they will only produce 31,800 cars in 2023 ((42,000/4*3)+300). If they deliver all the Ultra reservations before they deliver any of the Sport reservation, how many Sport reservations are there in the 60,000? If anyone has any in-site into  this estimate. Let's say 33% of the 60,000 are for Sport versions. That would put my reservation 40,000 deep, and my delivery estimate would be 2Q24. Even if 50% of the current reservations are Sport's I don't see myself taking delivery before January of 2024.  Hopefully there is a flaw in my analysis that someone can point out and I should expect it sooner.   Let me know your thoughts.